AMMA STILL THE THALAIVA (BOSS)!

28-9-2014 11.30AM IST

Medhaj News: The fact that the Karnataka High Court has passed a judgment indicting Jayalalitha CM of Tamil Nadu for an eighteen year old disproportionate assets case is a watershed in Indian legal history.

But whether will it lead to any tectonic shifts in the Dravidian heartland is the core issue to analyse.

Speaking to a cross-section of Tamil intellectuals, analysts & political leaders, it was clear that Jayalaitha enjoys a clear mandate that was handed down by the electorate and also will continue to be the supreme leader of the AIADMK.

“Corruption”, says Anwar Kombai, a widely respected documentary film-maker & journalist, whose family has been integral to the Dravidian socio-political movements, “is hardly the issue to harm Jayalaitha, namely because Shri Karunanidhi & the top leaders of the DMK, themselves indicted in the 2G Spectrum scam have lost the mass support that they enjoyed and are still recovering from their recent electoral losses”. He also stated that “Amma’s welfare schemes & her focus on inclusive politics, has also endeared herself to large sections of the population cutting across sections.”

Interestingly, Kombai makes a point that Jayalalitha has achieved a clear mandate in both the State & Lok Sabha elections “by not indulging in political alliances, but in reaching out and creating social alliances of various sections of Tamil society.” For that matter “even Karunanidhi’s government had a good welfare delivery system & there are reasons as to why today Tamil Nadu is actually the leading progressive state in India in terms of an egalitarian culture & holistic development.”

On speaking further to V N Subagunarajan, a well known Tamil writer & an independent analyst, it becomes obvious that even though Jayalalitha faces a situation whereby she cannot contest elections for the next 10 years, yet “she will continue as the supreme leader of the party, the reason also being that there exists no second rung leadership”. But “the party will remain stable & she will appoint the next CM, and she will run the government with relative ease. The party is well organized with a committed & dedicated cadre. The DMK will not gain from this situation. The BJP will try to make headway, but that too is not really a factor to be considered in the current scenario.” He said that “there is no question of the imposition of Presidents’ rule”.

I further asked V N Subagunarajan the reasons for the mass appeal & electoral success of Jayalalitha. To which he said that “basically Jayalalitha has worked hard to build a broad centrist alliance encompassing cross-sections of Tamil society. She has abandoned her move to the right as was the case in her first two terms, where she did adopt certain Hindutva agendas. But during the course of her political evolution, she has moved towards the centre of Tamil politics, stressing on the Tamil agenda, as well as a strong Welfarist development agenda, both of which have endeared her to the masses. But this again is not the reason for her success as even the DMK-Karunanidhi Government was successful at delivering the Welfare schemes to the people.”

“Essentially, she has moved to the centre & has spoken out on the plight of the Sri Lankan Tamils, even taking on New Delhi on this very emotive issue for the Tamil people. Earlier her position was more in tune with the Centre. She also refused to enter into an alliance with the BJP, despite the Modi wave. Thus her mass base grew to include various sections of the OBC’s, of which the Thevars have been the mainstay of the party. Even a section of the minorities have gravitated towards her, despite the fact that DMK enjoys equal popularity among minorities. The Brahmins continue to support her. Amongst the Dalits too, the AIADMK has made inroads. Despite all the ensuing turmoil in Tamil politics, the BJP will not be able to take any advantage of the situation, as both the Dravidian parties continue to hold sway over the masses & have powerful cadre based parties”.

On asking Mr. Rahman Khan (ex-MLA) of the DMK & a close confidant of Shri Karunanidhi, as to how this situation will pan out in the coming days, he said “that Jayalalitha will certainly go to prison, but is likely to get bail after a few days. But for now we are watching the law & order situation & hopefully peace & calm will be maintained across the state”. He also said that “neither the BJP nor the Congress will be able to take any electoral or political mileage from this situation”, and that “DMK remains a stable party with Shri Karunanidhi as the supreme leader & there are no internal divisions. There is no question of any Presidents rule in Tamil Nadu.”

The MP Mr. Anwar Rajan of the AIADMK refused to comment as they “were awaiting directions from their leader”.

Foreoze Mithiborwala,

International and South Indian Correspondence, Medhaj News