Even as PM Modi’s development agenda continues to strike a chord with the masses of the state, the possibilities of an anti-Maratha consolidation have emerged as a new phenomenon in Maharashtra.    

People of the state will cast their vote on 15th October 2014 to elect a new provincial Government. Over the course of the last three decades, anti-Maratha undercurrent has existed in Maharashtra politics; from time to time, OBCs, Brahmins, Dalits and Kunbis have tried consolidating their social & political organizations to put an end to Maratha domination.

But, till date, anti-Maratha politics has not emerged as a phenomenon in Maharashtra. There are several reasons for this: for one, unlike the Hindi-Urdu belt, Maharashtra’s caste structure has few Brahmins (2-3%) and no Kshyattriyas or Rajputs; so the classic upper caste hierarchy is missing; in fact, Shivaji, the iconic Maratha figure, emerged from what was then seen, like Reddys of Andhra, Patels of Gujarat or the Shettis of Karnataka, as a non-Brahmin forward caste. Shivaji had to `claim’ Kshattriya status.

In the 18th century, following expansion of the Maratha kingdom all over India, several Kunbis, or lower castes, like Scindias and Holkars, acquired the title of Maratha Sardars. By early 19th century, the Brahmin-Maratha alliance that lay behind the Maratha Empire broke up after the defeat of Peshwa’s army in the 4th Anglo-Maratha war fought in 1818.  

By the mid 19th century, quite a few of the major 96 or 137 major Maratha families, and several powerful Brahmins, of present-day Maharashtra/West India had migrated to North and Central India where they ran significant-big/small kingdoms. Several such forces participated in 1857, the great anti-Imperialist, anti-British peasant-military war of the Indian sub-continent. Several others sided with the British.  

After 1857, in British controlled Maharashtra, the Marathi—as distinct from Maratha—OBCs—especially Malis, Dhangars and Vanzara castes—emerged in the social sphere through several social movements led by OBC stalwarts like Jyotiba Phule. Kolis, Bhils and Ramoshis, who had fought the British in 1857 in Maharashtra were pushed into the `criminal-tribal’ category. Mahars and Maharashtrian Dalits, who had sided with the British prior to 1857, but had come over to the Indian side during the great revolt, were marginalized.

In the Post-1857 period, descendants of Shivaji remained in Kolhapur and Satara—they patronized OBCs and also Mahars and other Marathi Dalits. The Kolhapur Maratha Maharaja financed the education of Baba Bhimrao Ambedkar, who hailed from a Marathi Mahar origin, and is known today as the father of the Indian constitution.

 But the rise of Congress in the 20th century brought Brahmins and Marathas back to the Maharashtrian socio-economic scene; while Marathi Brahmins remained split between Hindu Mahasabha, RSS and the Congress, high ranking Marathas, now working as rich peasants, grabbed the reins of Congress politics.

Notable exceptions apart, Indian Independence saw Maharashtra, which was created as an Independent state in 1960, saddled with one Maratha chief minister after another. Previously, as part of Gujarat and Central Provinces, areas of present day Maharashtra, especially the Bombay (Mumbai)-Konkan belt, was seen as the bastion of the rich Parsi-Gujarati bourgeoisie.

In the 1960s, as Marathas tightened their grip over the state, the Bombay bourgeoisie continued to hold sway. Marathas concentrated on domination in the agricultural sector. However, rise of the Left movement in Bombay’s industrial belt saw the Bombay bourgeoisie support Bal Thackeray, a Brahminical forward caste figure, belonging to the Kayastha  Mahaprabhu caste.

After fighting the unions, and following the demolition of the Babari Masjid in 1992, Bal Thackeray evolved his own unique brand of Hindutva politics. Striking a new alliance between the Brahminical forward castes and neglected OBCs, he brought the Shiv Sena to power in 1995.

In 1995, BJP worked as Sena’s ally; it is said that the OBC-upper catse, anti-Maratha alliance that stood behind the BJP-Shiv Sena government of the 1994-1999 phase, was put in place by Gopinath Munde, a BJP OBC leader, and late Pramod Mahajan, a Marathi Brahmin and the then national level BJP leader.   

During this time, Marathas, who can be compared to Jats of Haryana, remained with the Congress; when Sharad Pawar, the national Maratha leader floated his own Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the late 1990s, Marathas were split between NCP and Congress.

One important point to note here is that unlike the Hindu-Urdu belt, especially UP and Bihar, Marathi OBCs did not emerge through caste parties or conventional-Mandal identity politics. OBCs rallied under the Shiv Sena banner as chauvinistic Marathi-Hindus pitted against Muslims and outsiders.

The NCP-Congress reign between 1999 and 2014 marked the golden period of Maratha domination. This was also the time when unemployment rose, industrial stagnation set in, and farmers suicide, affecting mostly lower Kunbi Marathas and OBCs, expressed the serious crisis of agriculture in the state. Several economically well-off Maratha families dependant on agricultural began feeling the economic pinch.  

Against this backdrop, the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections were bound to witness clamor for change with OBCs demanding a larger share of the socio-political cake and even poorer Marathas, Dalits, STs (Kolis, Bhils and Ramoshis), Muslims disenchanted with the present dispensation joining their ranks.  

Shiv Sena, with its solid Marathi OBC base in the Konkan region and Marathwada, and BJP with its pockets of influence amongst traders, middle class Brahmins and the OBCs in Vidarbha, were to gain naturally from this process.

However, two things happened; Gopinath Munde, BJP’s strongest CM candidate died in a freak accident; and Narendra Modi, the new star of Indian politics, began to lock horns with Shiv Sena.

Just before his death in 2012, Bal Thackeray had called for Sushma Swaraj to be named as BJP’s CM candidate. Modi did not like this but kept quiet at the time. Winning 42 seats out of 48, BJP-Shiv Sena swept the 2014 Parliamentary elections.

Coming to power in the 2014 October assembly elections was therefore seen as a cake-walk for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. But then, Shiv Sena which had always fought on more seats suddenly saw BJP flexing its muscles; and before anyone could cry foul, BJP had split from the Sena.

At that time, people kept asking: doesn’t Narendra Modi want power in Maharashtra? Why did Amit Shah, the BJP President and Modi’s confidante, break the alliance? Isn’t BJP to be pushed to the 3rd of the 4th place now?

However, today, on 12th October, it does seem that Amit Shah and Narendra Modi might have engineered a political coup. Years when Congress-NCP was in power saw Shiv Sena controlling Mumbai and other local bodies. A deal between Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena seems to have been in place wherein till he was alive, Bal Thackeray never behaved as if he was out of power; he enjoyed the same level of authority, influence and perks. Even after Raj Thackeray, his nephew, broke away to form MNS, his own party, Shiv Sena remained unruffled. After the death of Thackeray senior, Uddhav, his son, took the baton.

During the Congress-NCP years, the BJP suffered, as apart from a few exceptions, it did not really enjoy power the way Shiv Sena did; here, a new theme, of BJP being seen as the only party which was `out of power’ for 15 years emerges and starts re-shaping the Maharashtra election scenario.

It must be said that Modi read the mood correctly; as during the Parliamentary elections, he placed his political bet on the `simple’ fact that people are disenchanted with the system, but especially with parties that have been in power. Modi took this anti-status quo undercurrent to a higher level; he linked power aspiration with those classes, social and caste forces—the youth and OBCs in the Maharashtrian context—that have remained either deprived or removed, or are too young, to have shared political power.

Unfazed even by the death of Gopinath Munde, Modi broke the alliance with Shiv Sena, which for senior BJP leaders of the LK Advani phase, even Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh, was unthinkable; then Modi propped up Pankaja Munde, an unknown, young figure, daughter of Gopinath Munde, whom no one saw coming!

Today, Pankaja Munde is not only garnering sympathy votes; she has emerged as the new symbol of OBC assertion, and the OBCs, traditional Shiv Sena base, have started moving towards the BJP!

Again, Maharashtra has remained relatively free of identity politics. This time also, OBCs have not ditched the Sena and created their own party; on the contrary, they have come over to national party, the BJP!

So caste is not a factor; yet it is a major factor, in Maharashtra politics. Such are the complex facts; the point that yearning for change on part of the OBCs is expressing itself through BJP, and not a Left party or a Shiv Sena, singles out the singularity and peculiarity of Indian politics.

The RSS is known for such socio-political experiments; they tried and succeeded through similar politics in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Only, due to the Maratha lobby, towering Maratha leaders like Sharad Pawar and several others, chances of RSS-BJP achieving a plebian mobilization in Maharashtra was not taken seriously by anyone; even now, people find it hard to believe or trust what is happening; but the unbelievable `phenomenon’ is evolving before our very eyes!

Come 15th October, Maharashtra is going to witness a political earthquake. Modi is coming; with a Medhaj News will be publishing its poll survey tomorrow—look out for this space—and the surprises it is bound to carry!

Amaresh Misra, Editor-in-chief, and Firoze Mithiborwala, senior International Correspondent, Medhaj News