In an extensive survey conducted by the Medhaj News team in Haryana and Maharashtra, the two major states that will go to polls on 15th October, it was found that BJP was ahead of its rival in both the places.

Here is the prediction chart:

Maharashtra

Total seats: 288

BJP+: 130-140

Shiv Sena: 70-80

NCP: 25-30

Congress: 25-30

MNS, Independent and others: 18

Haryana

Total seats: 90

BJP: 30-35

INLD: 25-30

Congress: 10-15

Independent and others: 10-15

The margin of error hovers around the ratio 1:10 in both poll surveys. There is a reason behind our confidence; instead of relying on the fixed/traditional methodology of psephologists, of collecting certain number of vote samples from different constituencies and then projecting figures on the overall compound scale, the Medhaj Survey team divided the two states into sub-regions; took samples each day in all sub-regions of both the states from 5th October onwards; concentrated on people coming out from rallies after listening to leaders of the four main parties; took class, caste, region as micro nodal points; and yet kept the overall, non-class/caste/region macro picture, of anti-incumbency, Modi wave, sympathy factor, Congress decline, perceptual battles, Gopinath Munde’s death, Chautala’s imprisonment, Hooda, Deepender Singh Hooda,  youth factor, Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Phadnavis, Pankaja Munde, urge for change, aspiring India, in focus.

The results that emerged are stunning as the questions asked were original; the urge for change, for example, was also linked to specific castes and classes, which, we believe, threw up a different picture.

Maharashtra

The current being floated in mainstream media that Shiv Sena gained after an anti-Amit Shah, anti-Gujarati backlash following the Shiv Sena-BJP split in Maharashtra was found to be untrue, as in several Marathi speaking areas, considered Shiv Sena bastions, our survey team went deep into the `silent’ voter of different castes.

Here, a deep division, not apparent at the surface, within Marathi society on class and caste basis was seen, with OBCs clamoring for change and increasingly disillusioned with Shiv Sena’s `politics of emotions’. Even in the Konkan belt, Sena’s heartland, a two-three percent swing in BJP’s favor is visible; in a multi-cornered contest, this is enough to upset the whole poll apple-cart and translate into more seats for the BJP.

BJP is sweeping Vidarbha and Marathwada; Congress and NCP have been reduced to their rump base in western Mahrashtra and the Khandesh area. Rich peasant Marathas, as opposed to Marathi OBCs, are mostly with the Congress and the NCP; but cracks, especially in Dhule, Jalgaon and other Khandesh seats, between upper and middle class/poor Marathas, with the latter shifting towards the BJP, are apparent.

A new factor which the Medhaj survey team tried out in Maharashtra was the overall impact farmer suicides and the neo-liberal economic model of development have had on the state’s peasant electorate. In this, 95 percent respondents, belonging to different rural classes and castes expressed their disapproval against `the system’ on farmer suicides issue; while 70 percent farmers, belonging to the middle and lower strata, were unhappy with the agricultural policies of the Congress-NCP government.

The Medhaj Survey team linked the `anti-system’ sentiment to voting patterns—and 52 percent peasants said that they will translate their anger against the present Government into votes for anti-Government parties, especially the BJP.

The Medhaj Survey team also, asked questions about perceptions regarding certain key controversial Congress-NCP ministers like RR Patil; here 64 percent respondents said they will translate anger against RR Patil into votes especially for the BJP, as “Narendra Modi has openly taken upon the system and challenged the monopoly of NCP stalwarts like Sharad Pawar”.

The Medhaj Survey team also, asked specific questions about the Sena-BJP tussle; here, surprisingly, 49 percent respondents, all Marathi speaking voters, said they were happy with the way Modi challenged Sena on its turf and `might’ translate their feelings into votes.

The Medhaj Survey team inserted perceptions about Shiv Sena being a `Goonda’ party, into Survey calculations. 70 percent respondents in the cities, and 55 percent in villages, accepted that Shiv Sena is a `Goonda’ party and that Narendra Modi has done well to challenge its leaders and contest on his own. 58 percent in cities, and 48 percent in villages, said they will translate this admiration into votes.

Medhaj Survey team also factored in Rahul Gandhi’s appeals on fighting the status-quo; 90 percent respondents either did not know of Rahul Gandhi’s “anti-system” stances, or said that the Congress scion is “too much a part of the system to oppose it”.

Summing up, it can be seen that political factors outweigh economic issues; and  BJP has gained hugely due to the simple fact of Prime Minister Modi giving the impression of a strong man “who does not tolerate nonsense” even from his allies or regional satraps like Sharad Pawar.

Maharashtra pre-poll Survey confirms that Indians today are ready to back strong personalities who can challenge, take on, and fight established structures of power and the status-quo. They prefer the “under-dog with resources” rather than a “prince with resources” or a “mere under-dog”.        

This is different from the analysis presented at the time of Modi’s national victory in May, 2014. Then, Modi was seen as addressing both anti-incumbency anger, and hope for change, in aspiring India.

At the regional level however, Modi’s “politics of robust challenge” seems to have  taken the edge over, or included within a larger paradigm shift, the “politics of hope and development”.  

Haryana

In Haryana, the major advance in the last two days has been the state of confusion in the heavily Jat-concentrated belt of Central (Rohtak region) and West Haryana (Sirsa-Hissar). These areas are known for their respective, committed, pro-Hooda/Congress and pro-Chautala/INLD vote banks. Yet, as of today, there is a serious shift towards the BJP.

This can take any form and is visible more in the Rohtak belt than Sirsa-Hissar; which means that Congress will most likely get reduced to less than 15 seats, while despite putting up a good show in relative terms, INLD will not be able to get a majority on its own—a phenomenon possessing its own cyclical effect wherein, on the day of polling, Jat voters in Chautala strongholds, if they see the wind blowing in BJP’s favor, might switch sides and give BJP a majority on its own, for the time, in Haryana.

In North Haryana, the largely non-Jat Panchkula-Ambala-Kurukshetra belt is surely gravitating towards the BJP. Though BSP might take 2-3 seats, Brahmins and Dalits in particular are becoming vocal for BJP.

In Haryana too, Medhaj Survey team factored in questions regarding Chautala’s imprisonment, the hold of Jats over politics of the state, the misery, if any of the peasantry, and the condition of women and Dalits.

Again, it was seen that Modi distancing himself from, and directing criticism at, `Bahubali’ Chautala went down well with the Haryana middle classes in the villages as well. In earlier political contexts, Chautala’s imprisonment might have generated sympathy votes; but today, in Haryana, 76 percent of respondents in urban and 57 percent in rural, especially those in their 20s, said they have no sympathy with Chautala going to jail. 55 percent in cities, and 42 percent in villages, said they will vote against Chautala for this very reason.

Deepender Singh Hooda’s youth appeal too seems to be limited to central Haryana in vote terms.  

In Haryana too, “politics of robust challenge” seems to have taken over…

Amaresh Misra, Editor-in-Chief, Medhaj News, and Firoze Mithiborwala, Senior Correspondent, Medhaj News, Mumbai, with statistical inputs from Shri Rajeev Shukla, political analyst, Lucknow, and diagnostic inputs on Haryana from Shri RK Sharma, retired IPS officer