Very few people believed Medhaj News when it predicted single largest party/ majority status for the BJP in both Maharashtra and Haryana. However, all exit polls show BJP winning the largest number of seats/sweeping both the states.

Here are Medhaj News predictions, made on 13th October:

Maharashtra

Total seats: 288

BJP+: 130-140

Shiv Sena: 70-80

NCP: 25-30

Congress: 25-30

MNS, Independent and others: 18

Haryana

Total seats: 90

BJP: 30-35

INLD: 25-30

Congress: 10-15

Independent and others: 10-15

And here are the exit poll predictions:

Haryana (Chanakya):

Total seats: 90

Congress: 10

INLD: 23

BJP: 52

Others: 5

Maharashtra (Chanakya):

Total seats: 288

Congress: 40-43

NCP: 36-34

BJP: 124-134

Shiv Sena: 70-77

MNS: 12-15

Other exit polls differ but only in BJP’s margin of victory.  

In both Maharashtra and Haryana, the law of politics—that no one can predict where exactly an upward trend will stop—the point is first to predict an upward trend—has to be kept in mind while waiting for actual results on 19th October.           

Voter turnout in Maharashtra was 65%; in Haryana people came out in hordes to register a 72% stamp on EVM machines. Haryana parties—both Congress and INLD—were discounting the Modi wave effect; BJP did not have an organizational base in the State till 3 years back; it was seen mainly, as an urban, Bania party.

Even the sweeping victory BJP achieved during the 2014 Parliamentary elections was attributed to `national’ factors. Commentators said a BJP victory in state elections was impossible, as Haryana is a Jat State, and BJP has no Jat leader of Hooda/Chautala status to project as the CM candidate.

In Maharashra too, BJP’s lack of a `CM face’ was seen as a major limitation, which would hand Shiv Sena ultimately, a grand victory and Uddhav Thackeray will become the next CM.

Senior journalists like Rajdeep Sardesai were seen scoffing on TV that Maharashtra got separated from Gujarat in 1960; and Marathis will never accept appeals of a `Gujarati’ Narendra Modi.

Uddhav Thackeray in fact tried playing the Marathi Manoos card by not only raking anti-Gujarati sentiments, but also comparing PM Narendra Modi to Afzal Khan, the army general of Aurangzeb who had come from Delhi to defeat Shivaji in the 17th century.

What senior commentators and hardened politicians like Sharad Pawar were unable to grasp was the new mood in the country, against identity-caste/regional politics of the old type.

In both Maharashtra and Haryana, dominant, rich peasant castes like Marathas and Jats have dominated politics since several decades. The elite-political leadership of these two castes, represented in different parties, made it a point to stress Maratha and Jat stranglehold in their respective states—and used this as a card to mobilize their powerful caste brethrens, coerce lower castes like Dalits, and play the `fear card’ among the minorities.    

In the name of `secular’ politics, these dominant castes perpetuated Maratha and Jat rich peasant dominance—but they underestimated two factors: the rising economic aspirations of classes/castes below them and the anger of politically decisive forces like Brahmins even in Maharashtra and Haryana where their numbers are less.   

Since 1991, India has changed a lot; old paradigms are not working; the only politician who gauged the mood correctly was RSS, PM Narendra Modi and his think tank. Credit must be given to them, if, for nothing else, getting it right in May and October 2014.

In Maharashtra, overlooking Marathi Manoos/regional and caste sentiments, or the self-proclaimed leaders of that kind of politics, OBCs, a section of Dalits, Brahmins and even poorer Marathas, seemed to have voted for change.

Similarly, in Haryana, Delhi intellectuals were obsessing over `its not possible to displace Jats’ syndrome; but they did not take into account, the resentments among 76% non-Jat population of Haryana—and the possibility that they can unite to a point, where they can force a division among Jats, who on earlier occasions, were able to force a division among the non-Jats!

How could intelligent people miss out the effect a combination—of nationalism, anti-status quoism and challenge to dominant forces—offered by Modi—to the electorate—would have on the common people of India?

India is a country where at least since 1947, people have preferred national leaders who appealed to their basic issues and challenged the status quo; or represented a fresh perspective, style or positive politics against negativism and parochialism. This was true as much as in the case of Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, to a lesser extent VP Singh, Atal Behari Vajpayee—and now Narendra Modi!    

This same country excepted Nehru’s idea of India as it appealed to basic issues; now it has given RSS’ idea of India a chance, not because people are communal, but due to the sheer loss of moral ground of `secular’ forces; their intense decadence and corruption, their elitist, snobbish arrogance, their way of doing `welfare-socialist’ politics as a `favor’ to the people, their total neglect of real secularism and justice, and their manipulation of `socialism’ to suit the interests of powerful lobbies in all sectors of economic, social and political life.

Till now, Narendra Modi and the RSS have paid attention to the innate nationalism, anti-elitist sentiments, and intense desire for change and development of the Indian people. And that is the reason why they have succeeded!

This is a time for all `secular’, `left’, anti-BJP, anti-RSS forces—from Congress to CPM to socialists to Maoists—to introspect; aided by circumstances, and India’s phase of evolution as a sovereign nation, RSS and Narendra Modi have out-maneuvered them completely; it is a political defeat, not a victory sought by Modi or RSS by manipulating EVM machines or spreading the communal venom—in Maharashtra, two `communal’ parties were fighting each other; why does the BJP looks like winning here?

Think…something the `secular’ forces have long stopped doing…wisdom rests in transformation and adaptation…negative politics, abusing Modi or RSS personally as `communal’ when they are talking about basic issues, has had its day…UPA defeated NDA in 2004 because NDA leaders attacked Sonia Gandhi personally…now UPA/allies are losing because they are not moving beyond personal attacks on Narendra Modi and harping on `communalism’…

Irony…     

Amaresh Misra, Editor-in-Chief, Medhaj News, with inputs from Firoze Mithiborwala, Senior Correspondent, Medhaj News, Mumbai, Shri Rajeev Shukla, political analyst, Lucknow, and Shri RK Sharma, political analyst/retired IPS officer, Haryana